The Communist Party Congress will not be held until the Fall, when Xi is expected to start his third term. So, he probably cannot take a major step, like invading Taiwan, before that. Additionally, the Chinese economy was already flagging. Lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai are threating China’s economic growth, which Beijing had already set at a modest 5.5%. The unity of the US and NATO allies, and the negative impact their sanctions have had on Russia must surely serve as a warning to China, to sanction-proof themselves before invading Taiwan. Consequently, I believe the Ukraine invasion may have delayed the Taiwan invasion by years. #economy #military #taiwan #china #invasiaon #russia #Ukraine
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Invasion of Taiwan, Probably Not Soon
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Antonio Graceffo
March 29, 2022
Antonio Graceffo is a Ph.D., and also holds a China-MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University. He works as an economics professor and China economic analyst, writing for various international media. Some of his books include: The Wrestler’s Dissertation, Warrior Odyssey, Beyond the Belt and Road: China’s Global Economic Expansion, and A Short Course on the Chinese Economy.
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