By Antonio Graceffo
“We are at that stage of the war when the information war is sometimes even more important than the direct physical clashes at the front,” Lt. Col. Yurii Bereza, a battalion commander with Ukraine’s National Guard, said regarding the recent leak of top secret U.S. documents.
On April 11, the FBI arrested Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guard member, and charged him with leaking top-secret intelligence documents via the Discord social media platform. U.S. officials have refused to comment on whether any or all of the documents are authentic or accurate. However, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said some documents had been altered.
There are several reasons why the United States would neither confirm nor deny the integrity of the documents. First, commenting could validate the authenticity of the documents, revealing sensitive information. Second, Washington may want to protect ongoing intelligence-gathering operations. Third, commenting might threaten national security.
The precise and timely nature of the leaked documents, which revealed infighting within the Russian establishment, suggests that the United States can gather information on Russia’s decision-making and planning. If the Kremlin suspected that the United States had a mole in Russia’s security and intelligence apparatus, they would first attempt to verify the spy’s identity and activities. Next, they would contain the situation and prevent the spy from transmitting additional information. This would most likely involve the arrest and interrogation of the spy. The leaked information would be analyzed to determine the level of damage done. And steps would be taken to prevent a similar event from occurring in the future.
There’s another possibility, however: Russia could be involved in the leak. Even if Teixeira acted on his own when he leaked the documents, it’s possible that Russian intelligence seized the opportunity to alter some of them or to “leak” fake or real documents of their own. The documents suggest that the United States is spying on Ukrainian military and government leaders and that the Ukraine military is in dire straits. Further, the reports contain information regarding the United States spying on its allies. This is information that the Kremlin would like to reach the public, as it could damage Washington’s relationships with its allies.
Kirby’s claim that some of the documents had been altered is consistent with information warfare techniques used by the Russian security services, the GRU (Russian military intelligence), and the FSB (the successor agency to the KGB). Russia’s approach to propaganda builds on an old Soviet technique called “a firehose of falsehoods,” through which the truth is distorted in a way that gets other countries to act in the Kremlin’s best interests without them knowing it.
According to the U.S. Department of State, the top five Russian disinformation objectives are:
1) portraying Russia as an innocent victim 2) historical revisionism 3) the imminent collapse of Western civilization 4) popular movements are U.S.-sponsored “Color Revolutions” 5) reality is whatever the Kremlin wants it to be
During the Cold War, getting the average American to accept these messages was more difficult. Today, it’s much easier.
False messages are amplified as Russia capitalizes on the current information and technology environment to reach the greatest number of people. Security services exploit social media and media outlets. Russian disinformation efforts often target susceptible amateur journalists. Once many amateurs run a story, it’ll find its way into the social media posts and tweets of those Westerners who believe it.
Eventually, this misinformation will show up in search engine results and may accidentally be referenced by large, well-respected media. Once that happens, the lies become fact. And even if major media outlets discover the mistake and refuse to run it or try to debunk it, the story is out there, and some people will believe it.
The “firehose of falsehoods” strategy often uses misinformation based on accurate information to make it more plausible and difficult to debunk. Usually, the same source will release two conflicting narratives simultaneously to sow confusion. Plausible lies are released in the hope that they’ll be believed. At other times, intentionally implausible lies are published, so cynics will believe that the story is too strange to not be true. Ultimately, all these conflicting signals dampen the volume of real news, causing people to distrust anything they see, hear, or read.
The recently leaked reports contain evidence that the intelligence relationship between Russia and the United Arabic Emirates (UAE) is deepening. The Russian side could have fabricated this story to cause friction between the United States and the UAE. At the same time, if it’s true, it means that the United States knows about this relationship, which may dissuade the UAE from future collaboration with Russia.
This story could also be a mix of truth and falsehood. The U.S. Treasury Department suspects that the UAE is helping Moscow bypass sanctions and selling it semiconductors. U.S. intelligence believes that the UAE may be providing financial support to the Wagner Group, Russia’s private military contractors have been accused of gross human rights violations all over Africa and the Middle East. In 2020, UAE leaders met with Sergey Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Russia’s external intelligence agency.
In light of the recent Iran–Saudi Arabia peace deal brokered by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the United States is on edge about its relations in the Middle East. These leaked documents, if accurate, suggest that U.S. concerns are justified. However, if the Russians doctored the reports, tensions between the United States and its Middle Eastern allies could be heightened.
Ukrainian officials insist that the documents are fake. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said in a statement he published on social media that the Russians fabricated the documents to disrupt relations between Western nations supporting Ukraine. The Ukrainians blame the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence unit, which has engaged in similar disinformation against U.S. interests in Africa. Moscow’s minions have promoted the message that France is a modern-day colonialist, Russian President Vladimir Putin is the savior, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries are heroes, and the Ukrainian army contains Nazis and Satanists.
These messages, which were spread across Africa, echo official positions and statements by the Kremlin. In light of the misinformation campaign in Africa, the leaked documents could easily be the Kremlin’s latest information warfare campaign.
This article originally appeared in The Epoch Times on 4/17/2023
