By Antonio Graceffo
Over the past 10 years, as relations between the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have steadily deteriorated, analysts, policymakers and academics have debated whether they are embroiled in a cold war.
However, this debate is unnecessary, as the US-China enmity matches the textbook definition of a cold war, which is being played out in Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East.
When people ask whether the US and China are in a cold war, what they truly mean to ask is whether they are locked in a cold war similar to the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. The answer to that question is no, and the reasons are complex.
A cold war can be defined as a war “being fought not in the traditional manner of clashing armies, but by all other means short of actual combat,” in the words of Robert J. McMahon, a professor of history at Ohio State University.
A cold war is a condition of political and ideological tension, rivalry and non-violent conflict between major powers or blocs. It is typified by the absence of direct military engagement or declared hostilities. Instead, opposing nations or alliances compete through tactics such as espionage, propaganda and proxy conflicts.
A cold war is marked by the maintenance of a delicate balance of power and a climate of suspicion that might potentially escalate into open warfare.
Cold wars are relatively common. Examples from the 20th and 21st centuries include India and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran, North and South Korea and possibly India and China.
Cold wars are not new. The 19th-century Great Game, played out between the British and Russian empires in Central Asia, never escalated to open warfare. The same was true of the Scramble for Africa, where European powers competed against each other, with open combat being fought by proxies.
The US-Soviet Cold War was a prolonged geopolitical and ideological rivalry spanning from the end of World War II in 1945 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. During this time, Washington and Moscow, along with their respective allies, engaged amid political and military tensions, without their armies ever exchanging shots.
The Cold War was characterized by ideological competition, a battle of capitalism and democracy against communism and autocracy, a nuclear arms race and proxy conflicts, such as on the Korean Peninsula, and in Vietnam and Central America.
The two countries also spied on one another and both remained on constant alert, anticipating a nuclear exchange.
The ongoing cold war between the US and China is playing out on multiple fronts, with both nations seeking support, influence and political advantages in Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East. China’s interest in Taiwan is straightforward, as it aims to annex the island nation, while the US supports Taiwan without seeking annexation.
In Ukraine, both countries are working through proxies: China supports Moscow, while the US and NATO support Kyiv. In the Middle East, the US provides direct support to Israel, while China indirectly supports Hamas and Hezbollah through its support for Tehran.
These proxy conflicts resemble events during the Cold War, but there are significant differences between the situation with China and the previous one with the Soviet Union.
First is economic competition. The US and China are major economic rivals, whereas the difference in wealth between the US and the Soviet Union was so immense that no competition was possible or necessary. China wants the yuan to replace the US dollar as the global exchange currency. The ruble, by contrast, was never even considered for global trade.
Second is coalitions and blocs. The Soviet Union built a bloc of Warsaw Pact and Soviet-allied states. China is building blocs through the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
However, the Soviet bloc was all or nothing. Members were bound by trade, economic, diplomatic and defense agreements, which excluded them from enacting independent foreign policies, while China-led groupings have no such agreements, nor exclusivity, neither is there a contractual loss of sovereignty for members.
Third is diplomacy. Beyond the Soviet-aligned nations, Moscow had no real diplomatic power. It did not dictate the behavior of nations outside of the bloc. China, by contrast, has convinced almost the entire world to adopt Beijing’s strategy for virus containment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, China is a “plus” member, dialogue partner or observer in numerous regional partnerships, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Organization of American States, the China-Arab States Summit, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, the African Union and the Pacific Islands Forum.
Fourth is ideology. The Soviet Union and the PRC were and are driven by ideology. However, the Soviet Union’s goal was to export communism, to convince other countries to adopt its system of governance and then to bring them into the fold as an official member. China, by contrast, has no interest in exporting socialism or changing the systems followed by other nations. Instead, Beijing just wants other nations to behave in a way that benefits it.
Fifth is proxy wars. It could be argued that the Korean War was a proxy war fought between the US and China, but it would be more accurate to say that it was a proxy war between the US and the Soviet Union, and that China was the proxy army. Apart from that conflict, the US and China have not really fought a proxy war. China backs Iran, and Iran backs Hamas and Hezbollah, but so far, the US has only fought Iran through proxies in Yemen and Syria. While China would have been happy to benefit from those conflicts, China was not very involved. This contrasts with the communist uprisings in Latin America in the 1980s, when Washington backed one side and Moscow backed the other.
Sixth is military buildup. The US and the Soviet Union were in a massive arms race, as well as a race to space. The US and China are also engaged in an arms race, but it does not have the feverish pace of the Cold War. One reason is that the US has had very clear arms superiority during the entire time of competition and will remain on top as long as the US Congress keeps approving large defense budgets. The space race is similar. The US was there first. The best China can do is tie. The US is much closer to achieving a crewed mission to Mars than China. Even if China wins the race to Mars, it would not have a fraction of the impact of the first American on the moon.
Seventh is espionage and intelligence. The Soviet Union and the US spied on each other, but it generally consisted of intelligence gathering related to the military, counterintelligence operations and military technology. China engages in economic-industrial espionage on a massive scale, to obtain US civilian and military technology, to earn money, as well as to bolster its military capabilities. Additionally, China’s opportunities for espionage are far greater than those afforded the Soviet Union. Chinese comprise the largest percentage of foreign students in the US, and the US is home to about 2.4 million immigrants from China. Between 75,000 and 130,000 Americans live in China. Both countries are open for tourism. What is more, the US government funds joint research projects and labs in China, something that never happened during the Cold War.
The US-China cold war is here, but it is not identical to the competition with the Soviet Union.
However, like all cold wars, it will end either when it transitions to a hot war, or when one opponent loses the ability to compete.
Antonio Graceffo, a China economic analyst who holds a China MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University, studies national defense at the American Military University in West Virginia.
This article originally appeared in The Taipei Times on Nov 12, 2023
